According to BNR internal economist Han de Jong, the underlying flows of exports and imports are important to correctly interpret the Chinese figures. The numbers are still interesting “because the Chinese economy slowed down a lot last year. And both exports and imports fell a lot in the latter part of last year.’
“It can’t be said that the economy has really taken off”
Given China’s economic fate with the rest of the world, a contraction of the Chinese economy by the end of 2022 also meant a contraction in world trade. The figures are a bit disappointing for De Jong: ‘That surplus was considerable. But if you look at exports, they’re still declining, albeit at a slower pace. And imports have also decreased again. Even faster than in the latter part of last year. So it cannot be said that the economy has really taken off».
Power
According to De Jong, another indication that China’s economy hasn’t really taken off has to do with the price of energy. If the Chinese economy gains traction, this would translate into higher energy consumption and thus higher energy prices around the world. And it’s not like that.’ Nor does De Jong see an increase in freight rates, such as leasing, storing or transporting a sea container. In fact, even those prices continue to fall, “so things aren’t moving that fast yet.”
Isolation
A lot is happening geopolitically, one such development is that America, China’s arch-rival, is trying to isolate the country more cheaply. In the short term, this will have little impact, thinks De Jong. “But in the long run this will obviously play a role. Since China joined the World Trade Organization, the world economy has received a huge boost from China’s development and integration into the global economy. And if geopolitical developments go in the opposite direction, the whole process will be reversed.”