Markets remain mixed amid rising monetary policy uncertainties

While monetary policy uncertainties continued in global markets, economic activity in China at pre-epidemic levels of the new type of coronavirus (Covid-19) increased risk appetite.

Macroeconomic data, especially inflation in Western economies, continues to make it difficult to predict how long the aggressive stance in monetary policy will continue.

While yesterday’s macroeconomic data released in the US continued to give mixed signals regarding economic activity, consumer 12-month inflation expectations in the country declined from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent. , according to data from the Conference Board.

Analysts, noting that inflation expectations in the US remain quite high despite the drop, reported that the importance of signs of a slowdown in the labor market is increasing by the day.

Noting that recessionary prices in the country weakened significantly last week, analysts reported that the possibility of a “soft landing” was seen as a possibility in the markets.

THE FED IS WATCHING

Analysts noted that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in money market pricing, reminding that increases are expected to be 25 basis points at meetings in March, May and June.

While Fed officials continued their verbal guidance on monetary policy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee argued that relying too much on market reactions for policymakers was dangerous and wrong.

With these developments, the S&P 500 index fell 0.30 percent, the Dow Jones index 0.71 percent and the Nasdaq index 0.10 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. US index futures contracts started the new day with limited gains.

MIXED EUROPEAN EXCHANGES

On the European side, pricing in money markets continues to increase risk perception. While the European Central Bank (ECB) is forecast to continue raising interest rates in 2024 and lower the policy rate to 4 percent for the first time in its history, the sell-off in bond markets is not slowing.

Analysts noted that uncertainties about the future of monetary policy have increased with the recent inflation data and said that concerns that inflation in the region will start to rise again support the pricing in question.

Recalling that the data calendar is intense in Europe today, analysts said that the signals in the data are expected to be effective in the direction of the markets.

Yesterday, the DAX 40 index decreased 0.11% in Germany, the FTSE 100 index decreased 0.74% in England and the CAC 40 index decreased 0.38% in France, while the MIB 30 index increased 0. .12% in Italy. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day higher.

ASIAN EXCHANGES RISE

In Asia, the fact that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which was announced today in China, exceeded expectations and reached the level of the pre-Covid-19 epidemic, accelerated purchases in the markets stock.

Consequently, China’s manufacturing PMI increased from 50.1 to 52.6 and the service industry PMI increased from 54.4 to 56.3. In Japan, the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7.

Analysts reported that the rapid recovery in economic activity after China lifted its anti-Covid-19 measures also supported growth expectations.

With these developments, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.2 percent, China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 3.5 percent. In South Korea there are no transactions in the markets due to the holiday.

ISTANBUL BORSA EMERGES

Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which was in an upward trend yesterday, closed the day at 5,237.33 points, 0.77 percent above the previous close.

The dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 18.8810 at the opening of today’s interbank market, after closing at 18.8853 with a horizontal course.

Analysts indicated that global manufacturing PMI, inflation and retail sales in Germany and construction spending in the US will be tracked today, noting that technically the 5,250 and 5,340 levels on the BIST index 100 are resistance and 5,150 and 5,100 points are support.

The data to follow in the markets today are the following:

10.00 Turkey, February manufacturing PMI

10.00 Germany, retail sales for January

11.55 Germany, PMI manufacturing for February and unemployment rate

12.00 Eurozone, PMI manufacturing for February

12.30 United Kingdom, PMI manufacturing for February

16.00 Germany, CPI for February

17.45 US, February PMI manufacturing

18.00 US, February ISM manufacturing PMI

18:00 US, January Construction Expenses

(AA)