According to British investment bank Barclays, governments want to put bonds worth a record nearly €500bn on the market in 2023, while central banks have stopped buying. This can cause significant turmoil in the financial markets.
The European Central Bank has previously bought bonds, as a measure of support for economies in Europe. In March of last year, the central bank even decided to curb interest rate hikes in the financial markets by significantly increasing the weekly pace of debt purchases. Recently, interest rates have been raised to keep inflation in check.
“Governments currently have shortcomings,” says BNR in-house economist Han de Jong. “They spend more money than they bring in.” They have to finance that difference, so the money has to be borrowed, he explains. “Due to the pandemic, many governments have implemented such a policy to even greater extent, the gap between revenue and expenditure has become even greater, and therefore a lot of money needs to be spent on bonds.”
According to De Jong, even the bond-issuing organizations have the attitude: the first strike is worth a thaler. “We don’t know how favorable or unfavorable market conditions will be over the course of the year.” That’s why they’re already issuing a lot of bonds. “And that can cause congestion.”
It’s a problem if situations like this happen in the government bond market, according to the house economist. “Because that’s actually the cap that the entire professional monetary system runs on, because those transitions can serve as collateral.” All right, he says. “But that doesn’t work if that guarantee fluctuates wildly.”
Problems in the UK
In the United Kingdom, problems arose in the bond market in late September due to the failed budget plans of the then British Prime Minister Liz Truss. For example, one of those plans was to cut taxes, and so the British government wanted to borrow a lot of money. The government’s national debt was already high and therefore threatened to rise sharply. Investors were not happy with the plans and demanded a higher fee for UK government bonds, which caused bond yields to skyrocket.
The resulting panic in the bond markets forced the UK central bank to intervene. The Bank of England has announced it will buy bonds again to avoid a partial collapse of pension funds.
Source: BNR
Andrew Dwight is an author and economy journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of financial markets and a passion for analyzing economic trends and news. With a talent for breaking down complex economic concepts into easily understandable terms, Andrew has become a respected voice in the field of economics journalism.
