If “real disasters”, by which economist Arnoud Boot refers to geopolitical disasters, are avoided in the new year, he believes there is a good chance that the Dutch economy in particular will prove resilient.
According to him, the end of the year was good, because according to Boot, the greatest uncertainty is behind us. “Financial markets are currently perfectly capable of estimating what the future will be like,” he says. “Provided major disasters are avoided.”
Emphasize that the possibility of a major disaster is not very great, but still exists. According to Boot, the large conflict that currently exists would continue, “but in a sense it has become manageable,” he continues. But you can never rule it out. And for that scenario you have to make sure that as a country you have a clear understanding of how the economy should be supported.’
Own responsibilities
Boot therefore partly sneers at the previous approach during the corona crisis. “It must be clear what we will do and what we will not do,” he continues. “And where is the responsibility of the people and when they can rely on their government.”
But while Boot expects the Dutch economy to show resilience, IMF director Kristalina Georgieva’s tone is slightly more negative. You argue that the economies of Europe, the United States, China and other world powers are in such a lull that much of the world can’t help but face a recession. Boot: “It’s typical to say that when China opens the economy, whereas before they were the problem because the economy remained closed.”
China
According to Boot, it is suggested that China is once again accused of making the wrong choice. “Now that they are reopening everything, the suggestion is that this will cause the biggest pandemic in the world again. Because all the infected Chinese go all over the world.”
But, says Boot, it can be assumed that China has made an educated choice. “They thought about it. This aspect of the policy could be estimated; what effect existing viruses would have on a confined population. There were some estimates to be made there, and I don’t think China is stupid. So the problems will remain manageable and thus the Chinese economy will survive. And if so, we’re talking about a global economy where I’m much more optimistic about the United States.”
recession
He then says he does not believe in the possible recession in the US – partly announced by Fed head Powell. “Financial markets and the economy know what the rate hikes are going to be,” concludes Boot. ‘They have a price. Compared to the European economy, the US economy has always been more extreme.’
He therefore considers it logical that interest rates develop slightly faster than in Europe. ‘And it is crucial that this is possible. This is not possible in Europe due to southern Europe, which would face major problems if the interest rate policy were the same as in the US,’ concludes Boot. “But are you percent interested in a country like the United States, which has inherent optimism in terms of entrepreneurship, and you don’t invest as an entrepreneur? Then we talk gross projects.’
Source: BNR
Andrew Dwight is an author and economy journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. He has a deep understanding of financial markets and a passion for analyzing economic trends and news. With a talent for breaking down complex economic concepts into easily understandable terms, Andrew has become a respected voice in the field of economics journalism.
