The reason the recovery is taking so long is due to a number of problems, says aviation expert Joris Melkert of TU Delft. For example, geopolitical tensions play an important role. “The war in Ukraine doesn’t help, of course,” he continues. “The consequence of this – and also of the corona pandemic – is enormous inflation. Also, recessions are coming and fuel prices have gone up, so tickets are more expensive too.’
Also, according to Melkert, there are still capacity limitations at airports and airlines. “There’s just a shortage of manpower, and that doesn’t help either,” he says. ‘Aviation also needs to become sustainable quickly, and that too comes with costs.’
Fewer business flights
Another surprising statistic is that the number of business flights has decreased. Melkert: ‘It’s not very low, but it’s lower than before and it’s also behind the more touristic flights. I think cost also plays a big part in this. As we learned during the corona crisis, a lot can be done via video connections.’
Melkert also points out that the effects of corona are still very much felt in some places in the world. “There are a number of areas in the world that are not fully open yet,” he says. ‘Look at China and Southeast Asia. This is only poorly accessible by plane due to the pandemic. While this effect will disappear over time, it’s not surprising that business traffic will lag behind.’
‘By the way, the level is not much below 2019. For next year, the level should only be ten percent lower. and by 2024 it should be two percent. In 2025 they will return to the old level.’