The report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) titled “How the EU can avoid the restriction of natural gas in 2023” was announced at the press conference held in Brussels by the president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen , and the president of the IEA, Fatih Birol.

Recalling that Russia has cut its pipeline gas supply to Europe by 80 percent, von der Leyen said: “These cuts have put unprecedented pressure on global energy markets, with serious repercussions for Europe’s energy system.” he said.

Von der Leyen, who stated that “they managed to resist Russia’s blackmail” despite the large gas cuts, recalled that the EU has prepared a plan that includes an investment of 300,000 million euros to reduce its demand for gas by 2/3. russian gas. .

Von der Leyen stated that they have taken 10 important steps in the last 10 months in the energy field for the security of energy supply, especially by diversifying suppliers, reducing gas demand by 15 percent and strengthening energy infrastructure.

Pointing out that they are safe this winter thanks to the measures taken, Von der Leyen claimed that “Russia’s blackmail” has failed.

Recalling that the EU member states are still negotiating some of their proposals, von der Leyen said: “I invite the Council to approve these proposals quickly. Preparation for the upcoming winter of 2023-2024 begins now. We are now focusing on the upcoming winter term.” he said.

Von der Leyen noted that there are risks that Russia will cut off remaining gas shipments, that China will demand more power from global markets by removing Covid-19 restrictions, and that the extraordinarily hot winter period in Europe this year will not be experienced next. year Despite the measures, we can face a natural gas deficit of 30 billion cubic meters next year, “he said.

Noting that they will supply LNG around this year next year, von der Leyen said they will be in close contact with international partners for this.

“The time has come to finalize the joint purchase of gas.” Von der Leyen stressed that the most important step is to increase and accelerate investments in renewable energy.

The Von compiler drew attention to the importance of increasing public investment in energy transformation.

‘NEXT YEAR WILL BE HARDER’

IEA President Fatih Birol warned at the press conference that the energy crisis could become much more difficult next year.

Explaining that there are 3 reasons for this, Birol explained these reasons as follows:

“Gas imports from Russia to Europe were 140 billion cubic meters in 2021, this year it was reduced to 60 billion cubic meters. The probability that this figure will fall to zero next year is the first of these three reasons. The second reason is that next year will also be difficult for the LNG markets. Because the new LNG capacity that is currently in operation is 20,000 million cubic meters, which is a historical minimum. We have never seen such a small increase in capacity before. As the world’s largest LNG importer, China could use a large part of its global LNG capacity. The third reason is that there is no guarantee that the mild weather conditions so far this year will continue to be the same next year.”

Birol affirmed that the steps taken by Europe to reduce dependence on Russian gas paid off, adding: “If these advances had not been achieved, the potential gas restriction would have reached 60 billion cubic meters.” he said he.

Birol, who explained that energy efficiency measures, acceleration of renewable energy capacity and improvement of building heating systems will cost 100,000 million euros to close the potential gas deficit of 30,000 million cubic meters forecast for 2023 in Europe. he shared the knowledge of it.

THE NECESSARY STEPS ARE LISTED IN THE REPORT

The report, which was announced ahead of the Extraordinary Meeting of EU Energy Ministers on December 13 and the EU Leaders’ Summit on December 15, includes steps on how Russia can close the gap between supply and demand. if the flow of natural gas through the EU pipeline falls to zero. .

According to the report, the EU has moved forward and filled its tanks with gasoline to get through this winter without major supply constraints.

Despite this, Europe is in for a more challenging period next year, should gas flows from Russia gradually taper off and global supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also tighten.

In this context, if the flow of gas from Russia to the EU falls to zero and China’s LNG imports reach last year’s high level, there is a risk that the EU will face a potential natural gas supply constraint of 30 billion cubic meters in 2023.

For the EU to fill this supply gap, it is necessary to increase its energy efficiency steps, rapidly expand its renewable energy capacity and expand the use of heat pumps.

In addition, it is expected that the recovery of electricity generation from nuclear and hydroelectric plants, which is at its lowest level in the last 10 years, will contribute to closing the supply restriction.

The IEA draws attention to the need to expand incentive programs to improve steps in the field of energy efficiency, and simplify bureaucratic procedures so that renewable energy sources can be activated more quickly. (AA)