The OECD expects a small contraction for the fourth quarter in the Eurozone, but does not expect negative growth for two consecutive quarters. No bad quarters are forecast for the United States. Yet De Jong thinks Minister Kaag is right with his prediction that the Netherlands will enter a recession. ‘The OECD is too optimistic, for Europe it is really a question of whether a recession is imminent or not. But for Holland and Germany it is inevitable.’
Frozen out
The British The Economist is much more negative than the OECD. In the Frozen Out article, the newspaper describes how Europe is being wracked by high energy prices and geopolitical developments. According to De Jong, it looks really annoying as the newspaper describes. Especially in the long run. Although the price of gas is stabilising, it is still more than six times higher than before the pandemic. And the gas price in the Netherlands is still much higher than in other countries.’
The text continues below the tweet
At the same time, a fairly nationalist industrial policy is being pursued in the United States, says De Jong. These policies, initiated under Tump and continued under Biden, are designed to bring manufacturing back to the United States. That policy seems to be successful.’ According to The Economist, more and more companies in Europe are deciding to move production outside the EU, such as BASF.
Furthermore, Europe – and even the Netherlands – are also making things very difficult for themselves by wanting to be at the forefront in many areas, thinks De Jong. ‘European climate policy and the nitrogen crisis in the Netherlands make it unattractive for companies to stay here. And on a geopolitical level, Europe no longer has any role’.
Pensions
The fact that pensions in the Netherlands are still being raised is a “link”, says De Jong. Increases differ by industry and there are risks associated with these types of increases. “On the other hand, pensions haven’t been raised for a long time, but in a recession and falling stock prices, the pressure on pension funds will increase.”