China’s main economic data points to a contraction in November

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (UIB), revealed declining economic activity in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing PMI decreased 1.2 points to 48 compared to the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased 2 points to 46.7.

Values ​​above 50 in the PMI indices indicate an increase in economic activities, and values ​​below indicate a decrease. In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 and the non-manufacturing PMI to 48.7, falling below the growth threshold.

MEASURES OF THE EPIDEMIC LESS ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS

Although the number of cases increased in the country in autumn with the spread of highly contagious sub-variants of Omicron, the lack of signs that the epidemic measures that disrupt economic activities will change in the last quarter negatively affect confidence in economic expectations.

While leading indicators show the economic recovery is faltering, it seems uncertain whether the government’s growth target of 5.5 percent for this year will be achieved. The growth rate held at 3 percent in the first three quarters.

China is implementing a “zero case” strategy against Covid-19, which aims to suppress cases where they occur and cut the chain of transmission. The strategy calls for strict and far-reaching measures such as quarantine, travel restrictions, mass testing and restrictions on activities by companies in the manufacturing, trade and service sectors. In addition to interfering with the normal flow of life, the measures also generate discussions in terms of their economic costs. (AA)