Data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) shows not only a slightly more positive view on the economy, but also a slightly less negative view on willingness to buy. “However, banking economists have previously predicted that consumption would decline based on their debit card transactions.” It may be that not all of this data has already been received by Statistics Netherlands, thinks De Jong. ‘These are provisional figures and debit card transactions mostly occur at the end of the month. So maybe CBS’s numbers are different after all.’
Less negative
Consumers are particularly less negative over the next twelve months, according to Statistics Netherlands. According to the statistics office, the opinion has not changed over the past twelve months. Despite the slight improvement, people still don’t think it’s the right time to make major purchases such as cars, furniture or appliances.
Last week, Statistics Netherlands announced that the economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter, also less than expected. “This is mainly due to the investments made,” says De Jong. According to Statistics Netherlands, companies invested 4.4% more in September than in the same month a year earlier. More money has been invested in buildings and aircraft in particular.
Fears of recession
At the D66 party congress, Sigrid Kaag, finance minister, stressed that the chances of a recession are increasing. Something that economists, including from BNR, have been warning about for some time. According to De Jong, it is inevitable that the fourth quarter data will also show a contraction. ‘I expect a negative GDP figure. Consumer spending continues to decline, the erosion of purchasing power is enormous. You can already see signs that things are not going well in the retail sector.’
Sinterklaas and Christmas will fuel consumption in the coming month, but this is due to seasonal influences. “They’re spread out over the whole year to avoid a distorted picture.”
It can also be concluded from the data that entrepreneurs now have more faith in the economy than consumers. ‘Households are confronted with bad news and high energy bills. Entrepreneurs can partially pass it on to their prices, consumers cannot. The salary can be increased a little, but it remains far below inflation.’ Partly for this reason, companies have a little less difficulty with rising energy prices and staff shortages are still seen as the toughest spot for entrepreneurs, says De Jong.