Russia also raises other arguments to justify breaking the grain deal, such as banning Russian banks from using the SWIFT system, which allows for international payments. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, he wrote to President Putin yesterday containing a concrete proposal to allow a branch of the Russian Agricultural Bank to regain access to SWIFT. “Obviously it’s also just a political game,” says Hammelburg.
Export records
Hammelburg noted Russia’s grain and fertilizer export records. “We keep thinking about this route for transporting grain, but there are other options. I don’t know exactly how the Russians do it (…). Presumably from China. However, they have a different path that allows them to sell their stuff well.’ It is also salient that the United States and other Western powers indicate that they are working on alternative routes for Ukrainian grain, with trains and trucks. “The allies are already thinking about the stage where that deal just doesn’t exist anymore.”
“I don’t know exactly how the Russians export their grain. Presumably through China’
No peacekeepers
Asked to what extent the idea of UN peacekeepers protecting grain shipments is viable, Hammelburg points out that even then no insurer would be burned by this issue. “They won’t.” Last night, Ukrainian air defenses shot down another hail of Shahed drones and Kalibr missiles, this time targeting the port city of Odessa, a major hub for Ukrainian grain exports. It cannot be said to what extent the attack is linked to the cancellation of the Black Sea agreement, nor whether it is Russian retaliation for the attack on the Kerch bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland.
Psychological effect
According to Hammelburg, the bridge is more badly damaged than the Russians would like to admit, even though the rail link is intact and one road lane is for traffic leaving Crimea. If the attack was intended to disrupt Russian logistics, it would have been better to hit the rail link, thinks European journalist Geert Jan Hahn. According to Hahn, the attack could therefore have been aimed at confronting Russian vacationers (Crimea is a very popular tourist destination for many Russians, ed) with the reality of war. Those who now want to return to Russia from Crimea have to drive through Russian-occupied southern Ukraine. “It creates a kind of awareness that there is a war and no one is safe in Russia. This could also underlie Ukrainian tactics,’ says Hahn.
The military effect of the attack is minor, both Hahn and Hammelburg believe the effects are mainly of a psychological nature: we can hit you anywhere, even in the Crimea.
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