“The Kremlin is sending a double signal with this,” says Mart de Kruif, a former army commander. “You can assume that the Moscow Times is under some sort of government control. And a day after the news, Gerasimov is still there. We have known for about three weeks that there are cracks within the Russian leadership, and this is further proof of that.’
inner circle
If Gerasimov had indeed been fired, that would point to even more unrest at the top of the Kremlin, thinks De Kruif. ‘So far the inner circle of Putin intact, and then we talk mainly about Shogun, Gerasimov and two others. If Gerasimov falls out there, it means that the discontent is inside the Kremlin».
The Kremlin also reported today that Prigozhin and Putin had met five days after the Wagner mutiny, during which Wagner’s commanders allegedly swore allegiance to Putin. A propaganda stunt, thinks De Kruif. According to him, this is a way to show unity at the Russian top.
Dismissal
However, De Kruif does not rule out that Prigozhin urged Putin to fire Gerasimov after the mutiny. “It could be because the war hasn’t been good for a year now. The initiative still belongs to Ukraine today. For such a large country with such a powerful armed force, this is obviously bad news, it will eat you up at some point.’
However, De Kruif thinks Putin would not sideline Gerasimov so quickly. “Gerasimov is of a different caliber than the three previous commanders. He is known as the thinker in the Russian army. He engineered the Russians’ military doctrine and is seen as a confidant of Putin, so he won’t abandon it as quickly as last time.”
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