In addition, there is talk of the Turkish-Swedish feud, the 2% NATO standard and the creation of an intervention force of around 300,000 soldiers. “They could be in rotating formations on the border of the NATO area, if an attack were to take place anywhere,” Hahn points out. “And that has to be handled by a number of Western countries.”
“An intervention force could be in rotating formations at the border of the NATO area in the event of an attack”
According to Hahn, there are also some countries that express specific wishes. As an example, he cites the Baltic countries, which require permanent airspace defense by NATO. This includes the (immediate) placement of PATRIOT systems and other anti-aircraft guns, Hahn knows.
Result
But where there will be many mutual clashes, the question is whether concrete agreements will be concluded in Vilnius as well. Hahn says there is still uncertainty and tension surrounding various files. ‘That could work with Sweden is a bit fifty-fifty,’ he continues. “Biden and Erdogan called last night and agreed to physically meet tomorrow in Sweden.”
However, Hahn points out that even if Erdogan supports Sweden’s accession, it is not the case that the Turkish parliament ratifies everything on July 12. “Ultimately it comes down to what Erdogan will say about Sweden, but if Turkey approves, there is still something to fix by the end of the year.” But it’s hard to predict whether Erdogan will get past these last few details.”
Ukraine
What seems certain is the refusal to allow Ukraine to join NATO. “This has been clear for months,” says Hahn. ‘But also the whole path to NATO, or the security guarantees that are talked about, decrease a little every week. It seems they can’t figure it out. It will probably be a disappointment for Zelensky and his associates.’
Follow developments in Ukraine here on our live blog