Listen to Boekestijn and De Wijk’s full episode on Putin’s succession here
If, as Wagner’s leader, you proclaim that you want to teach Defense Minister Sergei Shoigoe and Army Chief Valeri Gerasimov a lesson and then turn away, it is understandable that you, as a Wagner soldier, feel rather embarrassed, says Van Koningsbrugge . ‘Naturally! And if you then continue to fight on the side of the Ministry of Defence, I very much doubt it».
“Putin has completely failed to make decisions”
One of the speculations behind Prigozhin’s withdrawal is the lack of support within the Russian military. But whether that also means Putin’s position is still intact remains to be seen. He more or less hovers above factions within the elite and is expected to make decisions. But that’s where he completely failed, says Van Koningsbrugge. “He allowed the conflict between Prigozhin, Gerasimov and Shoigu to go on for too long.”
This hesitation damaged Putin’s position of power within a divided elite. Then, according to Van Koningsbrugge, it is important to get the situation under control as quickly as possible. And the regime’s key to keeping things under control is fear. Putin was invisible, so he had to show himself. And in fact he understood the signal: he had to get to work, otherwise it would have happened ».
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Succession to Putin
If Putin steps out of the fray again, his succession will be an extremely complex issue. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Misjoestin is formally the first to qualify, but Van Koningsbrugge is betting on former Prime Minister Sergey Kiriyenko. But the favorite is Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. For Van Koningbrugge, the former head of the FSB is “a guy who emerges when the secret services carry out a coup”.
And don’t forget Patroeshev’s son Dimitri, says Rob de Wijk, founder of The Hague Center for Strategic Studies. He says it will be extremely interesting to see where things ultimately play out. “If this goes in the direction of a Putin clone, you end up with Pa Patrushev, if it goes in the direction of a technocrat, you end up with the mayor of Moscow, or Patrushev’s son.
Military coup
According to De Wijk, even if there is still a military coup, there will be a whole range of candidates. ‘Interestingly, Prigozhin’s name is mentioned again, as is Chechen leader Ramzan Kadirov. And Mikhail Mizintsev, the butcher of Mariupol, it is also another possibility.’
According to Van Koningsbrugge, the Security Service wins in the end. “You shouldn’t even think about someone like Kadirov in charge, then we’re really a long way from home.”