But this does not mean at all that the Russian Armed Forces will suddenly receive a quality increase. On the contrary. Defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague thinks Wagner troops could be put on the road. “He’s been given a few options,” he says. “One of them is signing a contract with the Russian military, which has actually already been announced by decree.”
“In any case, it means that the Wagner Group will cease to exist as a mercenary army”
And it is precisely that decree that caused the revolt of the Wagner group – led by Yevgeny Prigozhin – last weekend. “Prigozhin refused to sign such a contract,” continues Wijninga. “And I think many Wagner soldiers will refuse to do that now. A number of individuals may not be, but at least it means that the Wagner Group as a mercenary army ceases to exist.”
restart
Wijninga does not think a possible restart from Belarus, where troops have now been transferred, is realistic. Especially since the Russian authorities ransacked Wagner’s office in St. Petersburg for a corruption investigation. ‘There they seized all kinds of administration, cash, you name it. I think that’s how they try to knock out the Wagner Group.”
According to Wijninga, the reason Wagner Group and Russia have not reached an agreement is entirely due to the soured relationship between Prigozhin and Putin. Something that has also become increasingly clear in recent months, he says. “In recent months, Prigozhin has been increasingly vicious against the Russian military leadership, especially Defense Minister Shoygu and Supreme Commander Gerasimov,” Wijninga said. “And that finally took shape in such a way that it questioned the whole logic of war.”
Public
And precisely because the general public has had access to Prigozhin’s video messages expressing his criticisms, Wijninga thinks the problem will worsen. “People are starting to question the reason for the war,” he says. And on top of that, he just committed treason in Putin’s eyes. And although Putin sometimes said in an interview ten years ago that he forgives, he is not against traitors. In other words: for Prigozhin this will have another tail».