“The only chance Putin has left to win this war is time. He thinks the West is inferior, morally and technically weak, and therefore unable to continue supporting Ukraine,” says De Kruif. But last weekend’s Wagner rebellion shows that cracks are emerging on the Russian side. While solidarity in the West it’s only getting stronger.”An amazing picture.”
The drops become rain
Those cracks appear to be visible in Russia’s military leadership as well. The disappearance of the prominent Russian general Sergey Soerovikin is “extraordinary”, thinks De Kruif. “Not a kid. He directed all operations in Ukraine and was one of the best Russian generals. If we never hear from them again, a big gap within the Russian military will become very visible.”
“If it drips at the top, it rains at the bottom”
According to The New York Times, Soerovikin knew about the uprising. Much is still unclear, but “you don’t just drive in Moscow,” says De Kruif. ‘You have to have a plan for it, and if there’s a plan, others will know about it. The question is who in the Kremlin knew about it».
Due to a lack of support for Wagner from the Russian army, Prigozhin and his men had to turn back. “There is a lot to do inside the Kremlin. But if he drips to the top, it rains to the bottom.’
Swiss
That solidarity within Europe took a small hit yesterday, as Switzerland once again wishes to remain neutral. Quite in line with Swiss history, but with the necessary effects. Due to the decision, the delivery of 100 Leopard 1 tanks from Switzerland will not take place. ‘It’s a shame, but there are more countries with these tanks in storage. We have to look beyond’, De Kruif puts the Swiss decision into perspective.
Furthermore, these Swiss tanks are in such abominable condition that they could not be deployed until next year. “These tanks haven’t been used for about fifty years. It needs a new fire control and the computer looks like a 1970 Atari. That doesn’t help either.’ According to De Kruif, Swiss neutrality therefore does not hinder the course of the Ukrainian offensive.
Poland
At the same time, Poland is increasingly concerned about the situation in Russia and Belarus, which is now home to Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. “Historically speaking, Poland has been sandwiched between major powers for some time,” says De Kruif. “They’ll do whatever it takes to never get caught again.” The United States has since pledged to support the country militarily.