Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has arrived in Belarus. This was reported by President Aleksandr Lukashenko on Tuesday. Surprisingly, the President of Belarus also said that the Wagner fighters could be an asset to the Belarusian Armed Forces.
“I can imagine Lukashenko having Belarusian soldiers train with Wagner troops. This could mean a boost to him’ army
This is not surprising Frans Osinga, professor of war studies at Leiden University. “The Wagner Group is known as one of the best educated, trained and equipped Russian military units,” he says. “This does not apply to the army of Belarus. I can imagine that Lukashenko is now having Belarusian soldiers train Wagner troops. This could mean a boost to his army.’
No threats from Minsk
Osinga doesn’t think the Belarusian military will also pose a threat. “The army is really not that strong. If you look at the reactions coming from Ukraine, you also see that they minimize it a bit. Those Belarusian training camps are about 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and there really isn’t a threat there.”
What worries some observers is Wagner’s presence coupled with the fact that Putin recently had nuclear weapons transferred to Belarus. «Because Wagner is truly a radical club. They are in favor of war and are calling for an escalation of the conflict. If you then start speculating, it’s a scary link.’
Business as usual
Osinga thinks the Wagner group will continue to exist. “It’s also just a business that, as Putin announced today, is simply funded by the Kremlin.” But their role in Ukraine has largely played out, the professor thinks. ‘It was actually already like that after taking Bachmoet. By then Wagner’s troops had retreated to the fields near Rostov to recover.’