“The support of the Russian army, but certainly also of internal security services such as the National Guard, was fundamental,” explains De Wijk. “And recent reports show that it was that support that was highly uncertain this past weekend.”
Arend-Jan Boekestijn supports the theory that Prigozhin and Wagner did not have the correct intelligence to bring their revolt to a successful conclusion. This could also explain the sudden U-turn the mile-long column of tanks and soldiers made about 200 kilometers before Moscow. They probably didn’t count on Putin’s special guards to be able to stop the case in Moscow. In other words: Prigozhin foresaw that he would not make it in Moscow.’
“There’s just a huge power struggle going on here where we’re in the middle”
Irony
On the other hand, some important issues emerged last weekend, according to Boekestijn. For example, that Prigozhin could sit in Rostov without a fight to chat with Deputy Defense Minister Andreyev. “Also that he was incredibly applauded and that no one supported Putin, he was very hurtful.”
He finally ordered his troops back because otherwise it would have been a massacre in the Russian capital. Furthermore, it was never Prigozhin’s goal to overthrow the country’s government, he told Politico yesterday. What he showed was simply a ‘masterclass’ on how the Russians should have handled the failed February 24, 2022 operation in Kiev. “Man has a knack for irony,” says Boekestijn.
Power struggle
Prigozhin halted the advance in exchange for immunity from prosecution for the mutiny and guaranteed that his mercenary army was also safe. Looks like he won’t get that immunity, even though it was promised. And this is strange, think Boekestijn and De Wijk. “There’s just a huge power struggle going on here where we’re in the middle.”
De Wijk says he speculated that not Putin, but Defense Minister Shoygu and Russian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gerasimov were the targets of the uprising. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to force those guys out.” This did not work out, Shoygu was sent to the front in Ukraine, but then there were indications that a successor had already been appointed. “This matches the photo. I don’t think Prigozhin is doing this out of love for the Russian people. That man lives on massacres.’