In an 11-minute audio message, Prigozhin stressed that “nobody agreed” to sign a contract with Russia’s defense ministry and that Russia wanted to abolish the mercenary army by July 1. Also, he announced that he is in Belarus. With this, at least part of the agreement concluded between Putin and Prigozhin seems to have been fulfilled, notes defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. “Earlier it was announced that he would be welcome in Belarus, and then we didn’t hear anything for a long time,” he says. “As a result, we didn’t know whether or not it was going to happen.”
“It’s very uncertain, and everyone is in that uncertainty”
Wijninga finds it interesting that Prigozhin broke his radio silence, because he is ahead of Putin. ‘But I don’t know what to say about it’, Wijninga is honest. “It’s very uncertain. And everyone is in this uncertainty.’
Decree
Wijninga calls it a good thing that Prigozjin stated in his audio message why he undertook the coup attempt. “He has received all sorts of criticism about the way the war was conducted, but the straw that broke the camel’s back was the decree issued on June 10 by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu.”
In that decree all mercenaries were obliged to sign a contract with the Russian army, and the Wagner Group wanted nothing to do with it: it would have meant the de facto end. “That fall finally helped him cross the threshold to commit that action,” Wijninga said. “And this indicates that the discussion of operating under the wing of the Russian Defense Ministry is far from over.”
End of Wagner?
But while the discussion isn’t over, the end seems near for the Wagner Group in its current form. According to Prigozhin, the mercenary army will end on July 1 in connection with the new law, Wijninga said. “It indicates that most Wagnerians refuse to sign the contract,” he concludes. “That might lead those kids to seek safe haven, but at least it means there will be no more Wagner Group.”
Or is it? Wagner has activities that also fall outside of Russia. Wijninga: ‘I am in Central Africa, in Syria and now also in Yemen. It is not an isolated club within Russia. (…). So the fact that they have now rebelled says a lot about how they see the situation.”