Especially as the offensive is now focusing on four positions, says Wijninga. For example, there is fighting in Bachmut, the city of Donetsk is under fire, the fighting is intensifying in Vuhledar, and there is fighting in Zaporizhia. “Progress has been made, but they have also had setbacks,” says Wijninga. “For example, the weather has been bad in recent weeks. (…). I think now they are looking for the weakest point: where is the greatest chance of success?’
“I think now they are looking for exactly what is the weakest point”
Wijninga stresses that a pause does not mean a ceasefire will be declared by Ukraine, quite the contrary. This also means that Russia cannot sit back and relax. “There is a lot of fire on both sides, so the Russians cannot use this situation to improve their positions. I think the advance will slow down on some points, by evaluation.’
Reconquests
Perhaps the eight villages recaptured by Ukraine in the counter-offensive are being discussed. Even if the strategic importance of these reconquests is practically nil. “These weren’t major victories, even if they weren’t pinpricks either,” he continues. “It’s certainly important to celebrate successes, however modest they may be.”
Ukraine is estimated to have retaken about 113 square kilometers, “and it remains to be seen what the assessment will bring back,” he says. ‘This results in choices regarding the focus of the main attack, which has yet to take place. It will be interesting to watch over the next few days.’
Heavy weapons
Wijninga points out that the heavy weapons that Europe has sent to Ukraine have not yet been deployed. Something that could wait until after the break, hinting at a bigger offensive. “There’s definitely a chance, provided they actually use it,” says Wijninga. “It’s a question of correct evaluation. Then they have to seize the opportunity, because they still have heavily mechanized brigades behind them. They must be able to break through the defense lines.”