Based on confirmed images and reports, according to Krijger Ukraine is mainly claiming territory in the areas around Bachmoet and in the southeast of the country. “A number of villages appear to have been retaken from the Ukrainians, so the first pictures are positive for Ukraine,” he says.
‘First images are good for Ukraine’
In any case, things are not looking good for Ukraine, and according to Krijger it doesn’t look like that will be the case in the foreseeable future. Especially since Ukraine is now going on the counterattack, “and attacking is always more difficult than defending,” says Krijger. “As forwards you have to have a numerical advantage of three to one, and the Ukrainians don’t have that. Certainly not in the air.”
Realistic
With this, Krijger does not want to minimize the importance of the reconquered villages. He says it is especially important for morale that Ukrainian troops are able to reclaim villages. “What Ukraine hopes is that at some point it will be able to launch a real offensive towards the Sea of Azov,” he continues. «This would allow them to break the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea. Then make a heavy blow and isolate the Crimea ».
However, that’s still a long way off. Especially since the front is still too long for that, according to Krijger. “You can compare it to the distance between Amsterdam and Milan,” he says. “So the start is good for Ukraine, but we have to remain realistic: despite all the support from the west, it’s still David against Goliath.”