According to Bouwmeester, it is not clear where Zelenskyj wants to go with the counteroffensive: is it a question of reconquering the area that the Russians have occupied since February 2022 or even the areas that Moscow annexed in 2014, such as Crimea and Donbass? Bouwmeester does not rule out the latter, but adds that it is a difficult task. “It’s true that Crimea is attached to Ukraine, but there’s a huge area of water in the middle and you can’t just cross it to push south towards Crimea.”
“You don’t have to go that far to take the nuclear power plant”
Bachmoth again
Bachmoet also remains an enigma: from a strategic-military point of view it is of little use, but from there even more bitter fighting is reported. Bouwmeester underlines that the completely razed Bachmoet has become an object of prestige and that taking it would be a terrible humiliation for Putin after 11 months of fighting and great losses of people and equipment.
As a second factor, Bouwmeester mentions Wagner troops who are tired of fighting and are replaced by regular Russian units, a maneuver which leaves the Russians vulnerable.
Zaporizhia, low hanging fruit
The recapture of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is also one of the possibilities. According to Bouwmeester, it would not be an illogical choice: the plant now supplies energy to Russia, and could again supply energy to Ukraine. In addition, the power plant is also a prestige item, and the power plant is considered low fruit. “You don’t have to move so crazy to take over that nuclear power plant.”
According to Bouwmeester, the American secret services are also hinting at the recapture of Zaporizhia. The power plant could be a so-called intermediate attack target “to possibly get better positions from there to clean up the rest as well”.
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