In early May, Kadyrov repeatedly stated that his troops were ready to be deployed in and around Bachmut, and now it seems the time has come. The Tass news agency reports that Kadyrov says he has been ordered to assume responsibility for the front line in the Donetsk region.
The Chechens are said to be deployed around the town of Marinka, according to Kadyrov his troops should also be deployed near Zaporizhia and Kherson and for this he has already made tactical preparations. However, the ISW says it has not yet received any signals on the matter.
Blackmail
According to the ISW, turning to Kadyrov’s troops is a direct result of his support for Wagner’s boss Prigozhin in his power struggle with Russian commander Gerasimov and Defense Minister Shoygu. The Wagner group fought in Bachmoet for a long time, but felt too little support from the Russian army, especially in the supply of artillery shells.
Prizgozjin has appeared in the news spectacularly several times with verbal abuse directed directly at Shoygu and Gerasomiv. The result of this ‘public blackmail’ was that the Wagner Group’s bid resumed. This was despite the fact that Gerasimov apparently wanted to “prioritize” operations at Bachmoet.
Prigozhin was supported by his good friend Kadyrov who, according to ISW reasoning, wanted to strengthen his position of power within the Kremlink rings (or restore it, after all, nobody knows what actually happens in the Kremlink rings, ed.). In early May, Kadyrov said in various Russian media and on his Telegram channel that he could replace Wagner.
ring road
In fact, he even asked Putin for permission to do so. With that bypassed Kadyrov his superiors Gerasimov and Shoygu and he scoffed at the military hierarchy at his Caucasian boot. Putin saw this initiative as a threat to his control, says ISW. Because it added to a previous incident: In October 2022, Prigozhin and Kadyrov conducted a successful information campaign to bring about changes within the military command. An effort that, according to ISW, failed even to win Putin’s appreciation.
What he produced, according to the think tank: front service for Kadyrovites who have not acted for almost a year. ISW reports that Kadyrov has been stepping up his recruitment for some time. This would indicate that Kadyrov – despite his ultra-nationalist rhetoric – is not eager to send his troops to the front.
Discipline
For example, the Kremlin would not only punish Kadyrov for his blackmail of Shoygu and Gerasimov (and indirectly Putin), but would also punish the autonomous warlord more, pushing him back into the “chain of command”. Not only does Kadyrov lose status and influence, but, according to ISW, he would reaffirm the federal character of the Chechen armed forces. Finally, the ISW suggests that the Kremlin is driving a wedge between Prigozhin and Kadyrov in this way. Incidentally, it is not clear on what basis the think tank comes to these conclusions.
Crippling faction dynamics
According to ISW, this so-called “faction dynamic” within the Russian military has a strong and unhealthy influence on the decision-making process of an eroded Russian command structure. The think tank believes that the Russian military is unlikely to solve these command structure problems in the near term, but that these problems will certainly affect the Russian response to the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Above the fighting Kongsis is Putin, who maintains personal ties to all commanders and the minister. While it remains a guess as to how much political capital each player has, it seems clear to ISW that Prigozhin and Kadyrov have lost much influence. Prigozhin, because he apparently needed Kadyrov’s help to unleash his grenades for Bachmut. Kadyrov, because he now has to fight.
However, it won’t get much worse, according to the think tank Putin avoids the firing of its members inner circle. Instead, it rotates them in and out of favor, influence, and resources.