Scholz will speak today to both the top management of German industry and the trade unions. While the German economy has contracted, countries like Italy and Spain are recovering. In this sense, a difficult task awaits Scholz to keep all the frogs in the wheelbarrow. Because coalition party De Groenen wants nothing more than an energy transition. “Scholz will have to contain all those sounds.”
And it will have to do it now, says Marseille. “If it can’t be done now, it will never be done. Budget negotiations are currently underway and the German cabinet is halfway through its mandate, Schulz’s SPD will now have to deal with the Greens and the liberal FDP.’
“If it can’t be done now, it can never be done”
Wallet
This is evident both in front of and behind the scenes. “Germans now know that the energy transition will cost a lot of money and hit their wallets immediately,” says Marseille. And the risks are great if the German economy continues to slide.
The Scholz government is in bad shape in the polls, to the advantage of parties such as Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). In view of the upcoming regional elections, Scholz will have to take account of the protesting voters, thinks Marseille. “These parties don’t just get support from people against migration.”
Climate ambitions and economic recovery work are a tough combination for the German cabinet. The question is whether there will be political consequences if climate ambitions are not met. “The fact that it is booming now has to do with the fact that it involves a huge amount of money and all sides want to state their reasons,” says Marseille. And it could stay that way, she thinks. “This government is very happy with each other because everyone can express a little bit of their ambition in it.”
Even the largest opposition party CDU, the party that has been in government for 16 years under the leadership of Angela Merkel, does not benefit from the coalition’s criticism. “These parties form a close alliance and now it’s their turn.”
Discipline
At the same time, German industry fears much slower economic growth, with rising energy prices and much investment needed. ‘It is by no means certain that alternative energy sources will arrive in industrial areas, there is a lot to be done about that.’ At the same time, the German finance minister insists on budgetary discipline.
But although Germany may now appear to be Europe’s sick man, the German coalition is “convinced that when the energy transition is complete, sufficient sustainable energy will be available for German industry,” says Marseille from Berlin.