The alleged drone strikes follow the worst attack on Kiev since the Russian invasion last February. In addition, 37 cruise missiles and twenty drones were launched towards the Ukrainian capital.
From a Russian perspective, increased activity makes sense ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, says De Kruif. “But they should be aimed at military targets at the front.” With the attacks on Kiev, the Russians may want to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian people. “This shows Moscow that the war is far from over and can be brought to Kiev as well.”
Live Blog | Day 460 of the war in Ukraine
Another phase
This puts the war in a different phase, says de Kruif. ‘Becoming civilian targets will again play an important role.’ It is also the first time the bombings in Kiev have been carried out during the day. ‘People have no rest. Going to the shelter once a week may still be doable, but three times a day is really different,’ says De Kruif. ‘Then your whole life is turned upside down, your schedule changes, you don’t sleep and you don’t rest. You can’t get out and there’s that constant threat of attack. The pressure on people’s psyches becomes very heavy.’
Many of the drones and cruise missiles fired at Kiev over the weekend were shot down by the Ukrainian military. However, the stockpiles of Patriot missiles it uses for this purpose are limited, while Russia has a large supply of kamikaze drones, mostly Iranian-made. “Sometimes we forget that every war is also a logistical war. Also in this case the fact remains remarkable that, during such a race, the attention is not directed to military objectives but to civilian ones».
Hitler, summer 1940
In this respect, the Russian attacks are reminiscent of the situation in the summer of 1940, when Hitler initially bombed British airfields but then dropped bombs on British cities, says De Kruif. “He’s starting to target people’s psyches to try and break that resistance. Because in the end a war is about breaking your opponent’s will.’
“The Russians had to fight in the streets of Berlin”
There is little chance that this will can be shattered by bombing. “Whether you look at England or Germany during WWII, Russians had to fight on the streets of Berlin,” says the former commander.
Wagner in Bachmut
It has since become known that the Ukrainian military and the Wagner group exchanged prisoners in the besieged city of Bachmut in eastern Ukraine. And this is special, says De Kruif. Not the prisoner exchange itself, but that this was done directly between the two sides. “That would mean that there are contacts,” says De Kruif.
Wagner’s boss Prigozhin had previously offered to negotiate with the Ukrainians. He would like to give up the position of the Russians in exchange for territorial gains. “Apparently Prigozhin is so powerful that he can talk to Ukraine as if it were his entity and this shows that there is no unity within the Russian leadership.”