tactical encirclement
“The city of Bachmoth is in Russian hands,” says Hahn. «You can also confirm this through public sources. But is the city isolated? NO. Indeed, Ukraine even says that the encirclement of the city is close”.
According to Hahn, there is a “tactical encirclement”. ‘Look at the landscape, you see a lot of elevation gain. Bachmoet is located in a valley. Ukraine has been able to provide more favorable locations on the outskirts of the city in recent weeks. So they’re further up the hills and then they say they’re holding Bachmoet at gunpoint right now. With this it cannot be said that the battle of Bachmut was definitively won by the Russians or by Wagner. This is only the case if the city is also isolated. At the moment, therefore, the initiative and the fate rest with Ukraine.’
Logistics hub
According to Hahn, there are still reasons enough for Ukraine to want to keep Bachmut. “It still has that attraction, the meat grinder that so many Russian troops end up in. You also save time with it, they can prepare a possible counteroffensive in other places. Furthermore, you also want to prevent Russia from advancing further into Donbass, because that is the minimal goal of the Russians – to conquer that region of Donbass. Bachmoet could also serve as a logistics hub. There are railway lines, roads, you don’t want Russia to be able to use them optimally.’
Internal unrest
According to Hahn, we should view the battle of Bachmut not only from a military point of view, but also in a political context. Now there is a claim to Russian/Wagner success, what if the Ukraine succeeds in driving Wagner out of the city or destroying it? This is a success for Ukraine, which is leading to internal turmoil in Russia. The Battle of Bachmut should therefore actually have some sort of meaning similar to Stalingrad. If you can’t get your gains militarily, then start something through internal unrest in Russia.’
This is confirmed by Eastern European expert Bob Deen of the Clingendael Institute. ‘This is what Ukraine is betting on. Russia has to fight for months for a few roads and square kilometers, while Ukraine takes it back within two weeks. The Russians are finding that it’s not worth spending tens of thousands of people in some city districts because we’re going to lose them anyway. This is what Ukraine hopes for. I just think the Russians will defend Bachmoth very fanatically. Because obviously they’re also afraid of it,’ says Deen.