According to Groothuis, there are three scenarios circulating among think tanks regarding Ukraine joining the NATO alliance: the Finland scenario, the Israel scenario, and full membership. Finland has always remained outside NATO until recently, but it is a heavily armed, modern and democratic country integrated into the European Union. “A modern, liberal, democratic country”.
Israel, on the other hand, is also a model for a country that successfully defends itself outside NATO. It is also well armed, equipped with the latest weaponry, and controls the rest of the defense industry. “Indeed, Ukraine also has those documents. he arms himself to the teeth and is basically able to defend himself quite well.
Hybrid
The third scenario is full membership, but according to Groothuis that’s not a problem as long as Russia is occupying parts of the country. After all, that would immediately trigger Article 5, meaning that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on NATO as a whole. “So you’ll need to have something like a hybrid model or an ingrown model.”
Groothuis foresees bigger problems in terms of EU membership. Ukraine is one of the largest agricultural nations in the world. ‘It has a huge area, I think maybe half of Europe’s agricultural budget would automatically go to Ukraine. It’s not something that’s very easy to integrate.’
“We need reforms within the European Union and that means a multi-speed Europe”
According to Groothuis, Ukraine will receive a large part of the European budget. “I think the European Union will opt for an internal growth model or a hybrid model.” However, Groothuis also believes that the EU needs to reform if it is to include this country. He imagines a Europe with different speeds and different qualifications.
EU reform
“We need reforms within the European Union and that means a multi-speed Europe. Maybe a Europe with several rings». And this could be a Europe with an inner ring aiming for far-reaching integration and an outer ring with associated countries like the UK, Switzerland and Ukraine.
‘Orbán cannot belong to the solid core of European countries’
Incidentally, Groothuis acknowledges that a new European discussion about a new architecture inevitably encounters problems that need to be addressed. “You have another problem: Orbán really abolished his democracy. And this means that, as far as I’m concerned, he cannot belong to that solid core of European countries. Because Hungary has gradually lost its place in the EU.”
Listen to the full conversation about BNR De Wereld here