Chinese President Xi Jinping last week received the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, countries normally considered Russia’s natural allies. “And now they are being pushed out of Russia’s sphere of influence by China,” says De Wijk. ‘Even if those countries also look to the European Union. But it’s really very special what’s happening.’
De Wijk says invested leaders can cause frowns in the Kremlin. All the more so as China demonstrates that friendship with Russia may be less close than initially assumed. “You just don’t, but it happens here.”
“No Allies”
Arend-Jan Boekestijn calls it an impressive event, because it concerns Russia’s sphere of influence. “This is actually not possible anymore, so China takes immediate action,” says Boekestijn. And China really has no allies. They are the higher culture and consider themselves exceptional, more than Americans. And so they cheat the Russians.’
Although De Wijk thinks that even the Chinese are afraid of the Russian empire falling apart. Something to do with how Russia is actually surrounded by opponents. “In our part of Europe you have NATO, investing in defense departments and new members,” explains De Wijk. “North of Russia is a retreating sea ice, which poses a risk, in Japan they have a problem with the Kuril Islands, and in the south the former Soviet republics seem to be a problem.”
‘Territorial security’
According to De Wijk, Russia’s territorial security is woven into Russia’s DNA, as is its response in terms of military might. “And that’s not really possible at the moment, so there will be a reaction,” says De Wijk. “With huge investments in their defense, which they can’t afford”.
This incompetence is entirely due to the state of the Russian economy, according to him, which is no greater than that of the Benelux. Also, Russians have to contend with a declining population. “And that’s how the Soviet Union collapsed,” he concludes. “And I see the same pattern emerging now. This does not mean that the Russian Federation will collapse tomorrow, but if it does, it will be due to over-investment in defense.”