According to De Bruijn, the floating voters and those who voted for the rejected candidates will play a decisive role. Erdogan now received 49.5% of the vote, a 50% majority is needed to win the election.
Kilicdaroglu received 44.9% of the votes yesterday. Sinan Ogan, the third candidate, received 5.2 percent of the vote and is therefore out. Muharrem Ince received even fewer votes, but had already withdrawn from his candidacy last week.
Stability or change
“Voters who voted for these candidates chose an alternative. Not one of the two great leaders’, says De Bruijn. “Soon they will choose between the stability of Erdogan or the change of Kilicdaroglu. If all these voters vote for Kilicdaroglu, then he can win. But that’s still the real problem.”
In addition to the presidential elections, parliamentary elections were also held in Turkey yesterday. Erdogan’s coalition seems to be aiming for a majority in this. This can work to his advantage in a second round, thinks De Bruijn.
After all, a majority for Erdogan’s coalition “is not such a good message for Kilicdaroglu if he becomes president in two weeks.” Then the parliament can block anything it proposes.’ De Bruijn then takes into account that floating voters will still vote for Erdogan on May 28 for that reason.
“Voters fear Kilicdaroglu’s coalition will fall apart if he comes to power”
Erdogan also has an edge in the media: “The mainstream media is 90% under his influence, and this will continue.” However, the impact is minor, notes De Bruijn. There were two big election speeches on Friday: both by Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan is also on 29 channels at the same time. If you look at the ratings, you see that most people watched their favorite soap opera anyway.’
Criticism
Incumbent President Erdogan was criticized in the weeks leading up to the election. The sharp rise in inflation in Turkey and the way his government dealt with the January earthquakes have been heavily blamed on him.
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According to De Bruijn, the fact that Erdogan managed to get over 49% of the vote despite the criticisms is due to Turkey’s history of short-lived coalitions before Erdogan came to power. ‘None of those coalition governments really did anything, people had enough. At that time there was a huge demand for a strongman, and they got it with Erdogan.’
Many Turks fear such a scenario again, thinks De Bruijn. “They are afraid that the coalition that Kilicdaroglu has put together will fall apart if he comes to power.”