According to Brekelmans, the elections for both a new president and a new parliament are “unprecedentedly exciting”. The current president Erdogan is behind in the polls, the opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu can count on 49 percent of the vote.
This can only increase now that another candidate has withdrawn. This could lead to Kilicdaroglu winning more than 50% of the vote in the first round, making a second round of elections unnecessary.
The question is what can really change in Turkey when Kilicdaroglu takes the presidential helm from Erdogan. Turkey is not doing well economically and this is not expected to change much when the country has a new president. “Kilicdaroglu has announced that he wants to pursue a somewhat healthier economic policy, with a bigger role for the Turkish central bank, so that inflation can be curbed.”
European Union
According to Brekelmans, if Erdogan were to leave the field, the consequences for Europe would be serious. “If relations with Europe improve, measures can be taken in the area of the customs union”. But the consequences will also be important on a wider international level, he thinks.
Erdogan has also often taken an anti-Western stance, trying to position himself between the West, Russia and other regional players. In doing so, he regularly sided with the Russians,” says Brekelmans.
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This led to, among other things, Turkey purchasing Russian weapons systems that conflicted with NATO systems. As a result, the United States has decided not to sell F-35 fighter jets (JSF) to Turkey. “Kilicdaroglu said he will make more moves here,” says Brekelmans. Turkey has been a member of the alliance since 1952.
Other examples of Turkish meddling in the geopolitical field are the blocking of Sweden’s accession to NATO and the immigration issue. “The current agreements between the EU and Turkey on this will remain unchanged, but it is particularly important how Syria and the return of Syrian refugees, who have been in Turkey for years, are managed”.
According to Brekelmans, Erdogan will opt for a somewhat tougher approach here, which could also lead to more conflict and which could also lead to more Syrian refugees arriving in Europe. “Kilicdaroglu seems to want to solve this problem with Syria itself as much as possible. But it would be better for the EU.’