The battle is between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his challenger Kilicdaroglu. According to correspondent Joost Lagendijk, the mood in Türkiye is extremely tense. “Everyone realizes that it is do or die for both Erdogan and the opposition. He feels they can finally win.’
According to Ron Keller, former ambassador to Turkey, this time there is “a real choice”. It appears that neither party will win a majority in parliament. Such a situation could herald a period of instability, which is not good for Turkey or the world.
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Today one of the presidential candidates withdrew from the race. Lagendijk explains that the chance of challenger Kılıçdaroğlu getting 50 percent of the necessary votes in the first round is now considerably higher.
Jeans and onion
Throughout the campaign, both candidates use specific examples to reinforce their story. “Elections can actually be reduced to jeans and an onion,” says Turkey correspondent Joost Lagendijk.
‘Elections come down to jeans and onions’
‘Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu often uses onion, an important part of Turkish cuisine, to show how much the prices have risen. And Erdogan uses jeans as a symbol of the strong growth in exports and the success he has achieved with the Turkish economy.’ Inflation in Turkey has now decreased slightly, but the inflation rate is still around 45%. Last year it was about 80 percent for some time.
young
According to Lagendijk, what young people will do is important. Many of them will be able to vote for the first time. Where it was common practice for young people to vote for the same candidate as their parents and grandparents, it’s different now. “There is a kind of movement among young conservatives who have had a bit of a problem with Erdogan,” Lagendijk says.
‘We grew up with Erdogan, they don’t know anyone but Erdogan. And Erdogan has been trying for years to impose his vision of life on the population. But these young people don’t accept it, and therefore not even from him.”
Earthquake
Whether Erdogan continues to do well in the polls, according to Keller, has to do with a combination of factors. “It’s a constant factor and man is somewhat conservative by nature. Furthermore, he controls a large part of the press and can therefore also direct a large part of this campaign. Thirdly, the earthquake earlier this year plays an important role,’ he says.
The Turkish economy is a disaster, “there is no doubt”, but “the earthquake has had two effects”. Before Erdogan became prime minister in 2003, about 2% of houses were resistant to earthquakes. Now it’s already 50 percent. “So Erdogan really did something about the problem,” Keller thinks. “Also, during disasters you see that a lot of people still rally around a leader.”
Kurds
Whatever the division in parliament after the election, the parties will have to work together. Kurds play a key role here, Keller thinks. “Both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu have something nationalistic about them. And with any parliamentary relationship, there must be cooperation with the Kurds. And this is the source of the instability I foresee.
In the Turkish system, the president has a lot to say, without any control. “Erdogan organized everything himself,” says Lagendijk. “The only thing the opposition really has in common is their aversion to the current presidential system, which they will abolish even when they are in power.”
“The chance that Erdogan will lose is now higher than ever.”
‘It was nice’
What the outcome will be, neither of us want to venture into it. “I can imagine a Türkiye without Erdogan. There are many good and capable politicians and administrators who have nothing to do with Erdogan and who can govern the country,’ says Lagendijk. Indeed, I think Turkey needs a future without Erdogan. It was nice.’ Keller: “The chance that Erdogan will lose is now higher than ever.”
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