Incidentally, according to Bouwmeester, speculation remains and it could just be that the Ukrainian counterattack will take several weeks. Why? ‘On paper you can have nine combat brigades, good tanks and good armored vehicles, but it also has to be well structured and the units have to know each other. You have to be able to go through that fight together.’ In this context, Bouwmeester underlines the importance of the concept of struggle “of allied weapons”.
“Personally, I don’t think it will be Crimea”
When asked where the offensive will take place, Bouwmeester says it is again speculation. It’s true that all eyes are on Crimea, but it’s relatively easy to defend, says Bouwmeester. ‘Personally, I don’t think Crimea will be like this. It is very difficult to enter Crimea from the north side, because the area between Ukraine and Crimea is very watery and only two main roads pass through it. And they are easy to defend.’
partisans
Another option is Zaporizhia, but Bouwmeester thinks that too is difficult. Although the Ukrainians crossed the Dnipro last week in boats, it won’t be easy with heavy equipment. “It’s going to be a massacre, so you want to prevent it.” Another option is the area around Melitopol, south of Zaporizhia. That area is not yet under full Russian control because a partisan battle is still being fought there.
Distraction
European journalist and Ukraine expert Geert Jan Hahn thinks that all current Ukrainian maneuvers are diversionary maneuvers so that the Russians do not know where to expect what. Hahn calls a plausible scenario that the Ukrainians break through near the city of Tokmak, before Melitopol. “A plausible scenario is that if the Ukrainians launch an offensive all at once and execute it well, they will need a week to reach Tokmak. Then it’s just offensive out in the open AND.’
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