According to De Kruif, the Russians are having great difficulty keeping the current military industry going, let alone increased capacity. “Russian President Vladimir Putin made the choice six months ago to go to all-out war,” De Kruif said. “Russian industry has also converted to the production of military goods, but it’s still not going fast”.
‘Russians find it difficult to get the production chain in order’
And this is largely due to Western sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States. Without technology and microchips, very little can be produced in Russia. ‘The Russians manage to get some things through, but then the production chain still has to be in order,’ continues De Kruif. “And that’s exactly why they have problems.”
Everywhere
De Kruif points out that the production chain is not only disrupted for precision weapons, but things are not going well in other branches of the military industry either. For example, the Russians produce only about twenty tanks a month. “That sounds like a lot, but it’s relatively little when you look at battlefield losses.”
Shoigu’s decision is therefore a direct response to the expected spring offensive by the Ukrainians, thinks De Kruif, who notes that the Russians have attacked Ukraine more often from the air in recent days. “While the previous air campaign last winter aimed to cripple Ukraine’s energy system, the ongoing strikes aim to delay the planned offensive,” he continued. “We see the precision weapons the Russians still have being used to attack command posts, traffic nodes and logistical supplies.”
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How long those attacks will continue, he dare not say. However, it is clear that the Russians do not have the materials. “This goes for both sides,” he concludes. “When fighting is intense, battlefield consumption is more than industry can replenish.”