In-Depth Analysis of The Economist’s Turkish Election: Authoritarianism or Radical Change
British economics and news magazine The Economist published an analysis detailing the elections to be held on May 14.
According to news reported by VOA Turkish, the report prepared by The Economist’s intelligence unit, which conducts detailed research, analysis and reporting, examined the possible outcomes of the Turkish elections and the possible effects of these results on domestic and foreign policy. .
In its nine-page report prepared in April, the magazine claimed that President Erdoğan could win the election by a narrow margin or by contesting the result; He predicted that the AKP would lose its majority in parliament.
The report commented that the elections will determine whether the country will continue on the increasingly authoritarian path or radically change course.
‘IF ERDOGAN WINS, INFLATION STILL HIGH’
If President Erdogan remains in power, inflation will remain high; the country’s attractiveness to investors will remain limited; It was noted that Türkiye will continue to move away from Europe and the United States.
The Economist magazine claims that opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is currently ahead in opinion polls; He also drew attention to the high risk of defeat for President Erdogan after 20 years in power.
In the report, it was stated that the opposition’s victory would bring important changes for Türkiye.
Stating that if the opposition wins, it will abolish the autocratic presidential system and return to traditional policies in the economy and aim to rebuild Turkey’s relations with Western institutions such as NATO, the magazine report said: “Even if they succeed in the polls, it will not be easy for Turkey to implement its new vision.”
‘THE ELECTION WILL BE CONTRACTIVE’
The Economist wrote that the election will be contested, with a rate of undecided voters around 13 percent. It was claimed that President Erdogan will benefit from the advantages of being in office for a long time, his control over public resources and institutions, and his influence on the media and election officials.
It was claimed that even if he loses his parliamentary majority after the elections in Turkey, the continuation of President Erdogan’s rule will ensure that he maintains his power. It was noted that since the parliamentary system in Turkey changed in 2018, Erdogan would not need parliamentary approval to form his cabinet or face heavy scrutiny from the legislature.
TWO SCENARIOS IN FOREIGN POLICY
The Economist also drew attention to the fact that Turkey’s deepening of relations with Russia under President Erdogan, the purchase of Russia’s S-400 system, the blocking of Sweden’s NATO membership and tensions with Greece caused friction with Western partners.
In the report, “Erdogan’s victory will cause these trends to continue. Although there are significant differences of opinion between some opposition parties on foreign policy, the Nation Alliance will take a more Western approach and at least partially reposition EU-Turkey relations. NATO members will positively evaluate the victory of the opposition; however, the traditional positions regarding Cyprus and Greece, and balanced relations with Russia and China will continue.”
It was claimed that the differences of opinion between the opposition parties on Syria and the Kurdish issue mean that Turkey’s stance on this issue is likely to continue to cause unease in relations with the US; however, it was emphasized that a new administration would lead to the establishment of a constructive dialogue with the EU and the US, which would be a “window of opportunity for meaningful change”.