“It seems China can afford to profile itself as a peacemaker,” says De Wijk. ‘I think that’s fine, but you have to realize that China is taking on a role that was until recently reserved for the West. That this moves to China is very special and for the West it is something of a defeat. China has already had success in the Middle East with the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. You see the world order is changing.’
After the talks between Xi and Zelensky, it was agreed that a mediator would go to Ukraine and talk to both Russians and Ukrainians. An important development, think podcast producers De Wijk and Arend Jan Boekestijn. ‘But most experts also say we shouldn’t expect too much from it. Russia is much more important to China than Ukraine.” Boekestijn notes that China was Ukraine’s largest trading partner in 2019.
“It’s happening in our backyard, but China needs to step in to find a solution”
At the same time, De Wijk also sees a new propaganda war. Putin is not at all willing to negotiate, he says so himself. At the same time, the Russians are mostly on the defensive, apart from Bachmoet.” According to De Wijk, it is not clear what the situation in Ukraine really is, “apart from the fact that we are waiting for a Ukrainian offensive and Russia is digging in”.
Live Blog | Day 428 of the war in Ukraine
Essential counteroffensive for West
According to Boekestijn and De Wijk, a Ukrainian counteroffensive is essential for the West. No sensational victory carries immense risks. There are many people who fear that this will not happen,’ says Boekestijn. “Then Zelensky will be put under pressure to talk to the Russians,” says De Wijk, who notes that Ukraine has already been pushed into the background.
“If Ukraine is unsuccessful, the West has also lost. Because after that it will be very difficult for the West to continue to provide support in the form of new equipment and new stocks of ammunition, because they are almost running out. The shelves are emptying.
Also listen | Boekestijn and De Wijk – Ukraine Wednesday 427: Xi wants to mediate
A Ukrainian offensive is expected to take place in May. “That makes sense,” says De Wijk. ‘We’ve actually known for months that most of the heavy tanks will have arrived by then, units will have been formed and the winter mud will have dried up. And we know it has done little for the Russian offensive. This is a time when this can happen.’