“Every day the Ukrainian government presents a story of how things are going, in terms of losses and gains. Spam, I call it. Now it is written quite specifically about how Ukraine will handle this offensive in May.’ In these documents, Ukraine describes attack tactics, in which it will attack at different times along the width of the front. Especially not all at once, Hammelburg points out. “It’s been a common tactic lately.”
Russians waiting
According to Hammelburg, the fact that the Ukrainians are so specific in their description fits well with stories about Russia’s preparation for the counter-offensive. “From that side of the front we see a kind of retreat and new groups of soldiers are gathering.”
Based on the statistics Russia shares, it appears they have seen their losses cut by a third. According to Hammelburg, this indicates “the burial and the fact that the Russians are waiting.” While much valuable information about the weather is known, according to Hammelburg, there is still much that is unclear. “No one knows for sure whether the offensive will go according to this described scenario. Also, we certainly don’t know where, when or which group of Ukrainian soldiers will start the attack.” However, Hammelburg dares to say it will.
“If the offensive doesn’t go as planned, Biden may have to defend himself before Congress to continue helping Ukraine.”
American interest
According to Hammelburg, the previous offensive by the Ukrainians shows that they may have something completely different up their sleeve. “Then the Ukrainians deceived the matter. So it could very well happen again.’
A successful offensive by Ukraine is also important for Biden and the US administration. “They are fully committed to this, materially and financially,” says Hammelburg. “If the offensive doesn’t go as planned, Biden may have to defend himself before Congress to continue aid programs.”
According to Hammelburg, Congress is likely saying that those aid programs have not achieved enough results and Biden has misjudged the situation. The result may be that the Americans will significantly reduce or even stop providing aid to Ukraine.
If this happens, the situation will also have a strong impact on Europe. ‘The lion’s share of aid to Ukraine comes from the Americans, and we are counting on this. That is why the Europeans are expected to focus more on diplomacy without the Americans, because Europe only has ammunition for one day to support this war.’
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