According to geopolitical analyst Alex Krijger, Lula’s call is a signal that the world order is going haywire. «Europe still thinks it is the center of the world. But we have to realize that much of the world thinks differently about the war in Ukraine.’ This should be heard, he thinks. “If you don’t reach countries like Brazil, they will end up in the camp of China or Russia.”
However, according to Tony van der Togt, an expert on Russia at the Clingendael Institute, Lula’s appeal plays mainly into Russia’s hands. “I don’t think this whole peace initiative has any chance of success. Neither Lula nor Chinese President Xi Jinping condemned the Russian invasion. On the other hand, they claim to attach importance to territorial integrity and sovereignty. Then I wonder what kind of mediators these are.’
Lavrov
Lula spoke about the war in Ukraine several times during his short reign. On the one hand, he condemned arms deliveries to the country, while also holding talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to Van der Tocht, Lula’s call is therefore not going well in Ukraine. “They are also not being contacted for this so-called mediation.”
“We have to realize that much of the world thinks differently about the war in Ukraine.”
Furthermore, Van der Tocht sees Russia increasingly positioning itself as the leader of a kind of alternative world order, alongside China and the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). “While the West tries to isolate Russia as much as possible, and exerts political and economic pressure to prevent other countries from helping Russia evade sanctions.”
Jogging on the net
According to Krijger, it is important for the West to look to the South with an open mind. “For example, it is infuriating that France and England still have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, while big countries like India, Indonesia and Brazil have nothing to say.”
“If Europe really has the ambition to become a major geopolitical player, then you should have a great trip with all European leaders, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to Latin America, the most important African countries and in India and Indonesia. To show that you are willing to treat each other differently,” says Krijger.
Own breast
Countries in the Global South really need to be taken seriously, agrees Van der Togt. “And you must also have the courage to put your hand on your chest. We often say we care about maintaining the international legal order, but we haven’t always been consistent about it.’
Furthermore, the countries of the Global South should remember that the war in Ukraine is more than a European war with which they have nothing to do, apart from grain which is less easy to export. “Ukraine is trying to get these countries more on their side, arguing that this is a war of decolonization that should be better understood.”
“I think China is the only side that can really put pressure on Russia here”
The question is whether the countries of the Global South will understand this. “In one part of Africa, yes,” thinks Van der Togt. ‘Even if other countries are supported by the Russian military. But if you look at the voting behavior in the UN General Assembly, it is not true that the entire Global South is behind Russia.’
According to Van der Togt, even the pacifist group that Lula wants to form is not the ideal party for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. “I think China is the only side that can really put pressure on Russia. But at the moment there is no room for serious negotiations, because this requires a situation where both sides realize that there is nothing more to gain.’
Reasons
The fact that Lula has set out to unite those countries and thus develop a peace initiative has a lot to do with the character of the Brazilian president, according to Krijger. “He has been president before and always opts for that somewhat independent role. He wants to show the world that Brazil is back, while at home he has huge problems with inflation and food security.’
Brazil is hit hard by the war between Russia and Ukraine, while the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic are also being felt. That’s why Lula’s call also has economic reasons, thinks Krijger. Brazil is also now looking to trade off the dollar with China. So they’re really trying to reshape the world order that’s basically been around since 1945.”