Earlier today, defense specialist Patrick Bolder said on BNR it would be a diversionary move, but Osinga thinks it’s too soon to say anything about it. “At the moment we know too little about what exactly is going on,” Osinga says. “We know that since the fall of Kherson – when Ukraine retook the city – Ukrainian troops have been crossing the Djnepr at night in small boats.”
“Ukrainian troops have been crossing the Dnieper in small boats since the fall of Kherson”
Osinga says that these were mainly small reconnaissance operations, underlining that time has not stood still in those areas either. “While in recent years we have mainly focused on offensives at Bachmoet, Ukraine has re-conquered a larger area on the south bank of the Djnepr.”
Difficult
Osinga speaks of a difficult area, because if you want to use the land around the Djnepr as a starting point for a major offensive, you have to consider an amphibious operation. All supplies and equipment will still have to cross the wide river, “and that’s a very vulnerable and risky strategy,” says Osinga.
He doesn’t want to minimize the situation. He says Crimea and access to it are “incredibly important” to Russia. “In fact, Crimea is the flagship of Putin’s policy,” he continues. “Furthermore, it has extremely high symbolic value, so threatening Crimea can certainly be a signal to Russia that it needs to strengthen its defences.”
harassment
The crossing into Ukraine could also be a response to the ongoing Russian blockade of Kherson, which has been going on since the Ukrainian reconquest. So it could also be a deliberate action not only to deceive, but also to achieve an operational goal – to ensure that artillery units and snipers are moved further away from Kherson. “This will make Kherson safer and normal life can return to some extent.”
Russian history professor Hans van Koningsbrugge agrees with Osinga on the starting point of a possible spring offensive. “It doesn’t make sense,” he says. “Maybe we shouldn’t even be talking about ‘the spring offensive’, but about small offensives. Because if it were one, it would be all or nothing. If that fails, they are further away from home.’