Oleksii Danilov, chief security adviser to Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky, indicates that “an entire country” can be liberated. “So we are not attacking on one front, not on two, not on three and not on four. But everywhere.’
“So we are not attacking on one front, not on two, not on three and not on four. But everywhere.’
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar also hints at “multiple plans and multiple scenarios” in a 24-hour Ukrainian TV marathon. “You can’t navigate a course, because then the enemy can react to it.”
Unpredictable
Analyst Michael Kofman was on Bachmoet recently and also believes that Ukraine is not sticking in one place. “You can’t predict what the outcome will be, but they have a better chance of success than I thought a month ago,” he says on his podcast The Russia Contingency. A significant amount of artillery and ammunition is now arriving. Now it seems they are training more people, even though the training time has been reduced.’
Ukraine holds its cards to its chest when it comes to possible different plans of attack. According to Danilov, only “three to five people” in Ukraine know about the actual offensive, he recently told Radio Svoboda.
However, the liberation of the city of Melitopol is seen as a serious option, according to the Financial Times. You’ve cut off part of Russia’s occupied territory geographically from the rest of their occupied territory, and Russian logistics take a hit, writes FT correspondent Christopher Miller from southeast Ukraine, not far from that potential attack site.
When?
The exact moment when the Ukrainian counter-offensive will take place remains uncertain, Floris Akkerman also reports. The creator of BNR Perestrojkast is currently in Kiev. “Here we are certainly talking about a Ukrainian counter-offensive. And yes, the question is: when? The Defense Department mentioned April-May. Pentagon leaks list April 30 as the earliest tangible date.
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Yet there is room for doubt in Ukraine as well. Akkerman: ‘Because what awaits us if the offensive fails? This is also a question among Ukrainians. I mentioned this to a retired lieutenant general. He said: if it doesn’t work now, we’ll start over. Training again, preparing again, preparing again. But the failure of the offensive remains a scenario’.