According to BNR foreign commentator Bernard Hammelburg, the American handover is intended on the one hand to keep Ukraine afloat in the short term, and on the other hand to defend against a renewed Russian offensive. «It is mainly ammunition for HIMARS systems. They are used to stop tank attacks.’
Although ammunition production is in full swing, the demand is much higher than the supply. “There’s a constant lack of that because artillery is being fired at a rapid pace.” In addition to rocket artillery for HIMARS systems, the Americans also supply anti-tank mines. “It’s a very specifically defined package,” says Hammelburg.
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No Normandy
For some time there has been talk of a new Russian offensive which should start in the spring. “At the beginning of winter we first spoke of a spring offensive,” says Hahn. The Russians haven’t gained much territory yet, the Russian offensive has mainly focused on Bachmoet and Avdiivka. “These are really the hot spots.”
“A front like this is different from, say, the invasion of Normandy,” says Hammelburg. “There’s not a large mass of advancing soldiers, but such a front is mostly directed at specific points somewhere along the front line.”
Necessary success
In addition to ammunition shortages, both Ukraine and Russia have a manpower problem. “To put it disrespectfully, they just ran out of soldiers,” Hammelburg says. ‘Part of the offensive therefore does not only concern the men in the trenches, but also other resources. It becomes a fragmented chain of targeted attacks.’
“Ukraine has to achieve success somewhere,” thinks Geert Jan Hahn. “They will realize that it is impossible for them to control all areas again this year. They will have to achieve small successes, the reconquest of Crimea is seen as a serious option.’
Grain business
The solidarity of some EU countries towards Ukraine has suffered a few bruises in the last week. Farmers in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria are angry that cheap grain from Ukraine is not exported to the rest of the world, but falls behind in these countries. That disrupts the market, these five countries say. The intention is now to make $100 million available to compensate these countries. “There is no talk of an agreement yet, the situation is getting more and more difficult,” says Hahn.