According to the IMF, the UK economy will grow less than other G20 countries. For example, growth of only 0.3% is forecast for 2023. Furthermore, unemployment would also rise faster than the rest; an unemployment rate of 4.7% is forecast for 2024.
The IMF’s negative outlook confirms the pessimism of international organizations on the UK economy. All the more so now that British households are experiencing double-digit inflation and local government is scrambling to restore fiscal credibility. However, a rise in unemployment would cool the overheated job market, Bloomberg argues. Also because the shortage of English personnel only fuels inflation.
‘Painful’
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas calls inflation a painful factor, but points out that there is an economic slowdown across Europe. “But in the UK, families are getting into trouble,” he says.
In recent months, the UK has also remained at the bottom of the IMF’s list, although there may now be a bright spot ahead. The British economy is proving to be more resilient than initially expected, and the Bank of England predicted last month that the UK may be able to stave off a recession.