Belarusian expert and journalist Franka Hummels expects the discussion to include the placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and the so-called State of the Union, as the bilateral summit is called, will be eagerly awaited. “There’s a lot to discuss,” says Hummels. ‘And what also plays a part is that Zelensky is currently making an appearance in Poland. Putin probably wants to demonstrate that he is also holding high-level talks with neighboring countries.’
However, where the early visit seems possible for the stage, there is also a persistent rumor that Lukashenko may present a proposal for a ceasefire. Hummels points out that this is an older entry, but that doesn’t make it any less relevant. “Belarus has been a mediator since the war started in the east in 2014,” she says. “For example, the negotiations took place in Minsk and Belarus has always acted as a neutral partner.”
Following
However, Hummels says a continuation of that role isn’t actually possible, no matter how much rumor gets around. This is due to the fact that Ukraine is being attacked by Belarus and nuclear weapons are now also being discussed. “Ukraine will therefore never recognize Belarus as an independent country or an independent mediator,” he says. “Less of all Lukashenko.”
Ukraine will never recognize Belarus as an independent mediator
He therefore does not expect the rest of Europe to insist on choosing such a path of mediation. And with that Putin’s propaganda machine goes into full swing, ‘because Putin can then say it’s not his fault,’ Hummels continues. “That he provides a good solution with an ‘independent’ country, but that the West wouldn’t want that.”
armistice day
If Lukashenko does indeed propose to broker a ceasefire, that would be good news for Belarus. Especially since the power of Belarus resides de facto in Russia. Earlier, Lukashenko lost the elections, which led to huge protests in the country. Only with the help of Putin – with whom Lukashenko has worked extensively – could he stay in the saddle. “As soon as Putin leaves him, he leaves,” says Hummels. “So he really doesn’t want much.”
So if Belarus can play the role it did in 2014, public opinion towards the country could ease somewhat. Belarus is currently considered a total pariah on the world stage, but the West simply cannot turn a blind eye to the country if it starts to mediate, concludes Hummels.