To return home with a good feeling, Macron and Von der Leyen will have to shake several hands, Cats expects. Macron is, among other things, looking for a billion-dollar contract for the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. “You’ve always seen the US and Europe take turns in the past,” says Cats. “Boeing and Airbus, but given the relationship with the United States, Xi is now more inclined towards Airbus.”
Furthermore, both Macron and Von der Leyen would like to receive a commitment from the Chinese government about how terrible the war in Ukraine is, even though Cats thinks that will be a difficult task. He therefore deems it unlikely that Xi will change sides and talk to Ukrainian President Zelensky’.
Good, but not real
It is supported by, among others, former ambassador to China Ed Kronenburg. He calls the ambition to get such pledges from Xi good, but whether it is realistic from the talks remains to be seen. He himself thinks that the main reason for Macron’s presence is so that he can discuss the situation in Ukraine with the Chinese president.
“Hopefully Macron will pick up on something when he talks to Xi”
But what exactly China wants is unclear. Kronenburg: “China has obviously indicated that it wants to play a mediating role, but so far not much has come of it.” He points out that Xi spoke with Putin, but that it is entirely unknown what exactly was discussed there. “I hope Macron realizes this when he talks to Xi.”
No contact with Ukraine
Kronenburg also stresses that if China is to play the role of mediator, it must also talk to Zelensky. And that hasn’t happened to date. “As far as we know, anyway,” he says. And if so, not even China can play that mediating role. The use of Macron could also be to indicate that Xi may be the one who can wield the most influence over Putin.’
And an engagement by Xi could be successful, Kronenburg thinks. He expects Putin to be very sensitive to pressure from China. In Putin’s eyes, China is probably the only country that still supports him. “Maybe not literally in the conflict, but where else can it go. Both with its history and with a share of Russian oil and gas exports. So he desperately needs the Chinese.”