Where the United States has long dominated as a world leader, Europe has played a relatively small role. Former Ambassador to Russia and the United States Renée Jones-Bos recalls a statement by former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer: “He always said: Europe is a child when it comes to military power, a teenager when it’s about political power, and a robust adult is about economic power.’
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That picture is changing, Jones-Bos notes. ‘I think we have moved forward and progressed in Europe. I believe that Russia did not count on the strong response (to the invasion of Ukraine, ed): sanctions packages, the increase of defense budgets and cooperation within Europe in the field of foreign affairs and security ‘.
“Europe has the ambition and potential to take a stand in the multipolar world”
Multipolar world
Maastricht University professor of contemporary European history and European integration Mathieu Segers agrees with the former ambassador, though he doubts how future-proof this European institution is. “I think we should make a reservation; What will Europe’s role be in the long term? But looking at this moment, it could certainly be argued that Europe at least has the ambition and the potential to take a position in the emerging multipolar world.’
Before that ambition and potential can be realised, according to Jones-Bos, Europe must become less dependent on the United States in the military field. Without their military support we are very small, she argues. In the United States, therefore, it is often argued that NATO countries should increase defense spending to 2% of gross national product (GNP). While more and more countries commit to reaching that 2% in the future, this is not yet the case for many NATO countries.
trump
According to Segers, there are two ways to look at this military dependency. At present, America is at peace with Europe’s military contribution, so that could be interpreted as reassuring. But there is also a flip side: ‘If Trump returns as president, how much will the agreements with the US still be worth? To what extent will Europe be rejected as the only truly credible leader of the West?’
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Trump has always been harsh on NATO countries in his rhetoric, even calling for a standard of 4% of GDP. It is unclear how Trump will deal with NATO if he returns to power. According to Segers, it is important that Europe rapidly becomes more independent militarily. “Due to the overdue maintenance, Europe is actually not ready for a scenario with a president like Trump.”