The exercises can be interpreted very broadly, thinks Korean studies professor Remco Breuker of Leiden University. For example, exercises in the field of cyber warfare are organised, but also exercises on the ground. “Invasion scenarios are being practiced and the United States has been flying B-1B bombers. They can drop a lot of bombs on one target, like North Korea.”
“US flew B-1B bombers”
The reason Breuker mentions North Korea is that the exercises are most likely intended to discourage North Korea. The dictatorship led by Kim Jong-un has made itself heard in recent months, according to Breuker, and has spoken a lot of belligerent language as well as launching missiles. Even with the nuclear threat.
I disagree with
In any case, Breuker thinks joint exercises are a clear answer. “By doing so, the United States and South Korea show that they care and will stand their ground,” he says, noting that the North Korean threat has only strengthened the relationship between South Korea and the United States. “It’s back to normal.”
Pyongyang is not happy with the military efforts of both countries, and yesterday warned not to continue large joint exercises. The North Koreans also launched strategic cruise missiles yesterday as a test, and Breuker thinks it won’t stop there. He expects North Korea to be guaranteed to respond. Especially since it is the first time in five years that large-scale exercises have been held, “so North Korea is obliged to threaten hell and damnation,” he says. “And it will.”
Lots of barking, little biting
But, Breuker points out, it will likely stay that way. “If it doesn’t escalate too much, it will stick to some missile tests,” he says. Playing a role, however, is the fact that South Korea is seeking (and appears to be achieving) a rapprochement with Japan, something North Korea is far from happy about.
“North Korea will really resist”
This is mainly due to the history of the Korean peninsula. Both teams have difficult pasts with Japan, Breuker points out. Thus, both parts of Korea were colonized by the Japanese. The current South Korean president has now decided to move beyond that past and see Japan as an important partner in the region. “And then North Korea really faces a blockade,” concludes Breuker. United States, South Korea and Japan. This has a very restrictive effect on commercial freedom, so they will strongly oppose it.”