According to Bolder, a nuclear weapon is intended to “influence the opponent’s decision-making process and turn it upside down.” Bolder doesn’t think Russia will resort to nuclear weapons quickly, but he can’t rule that out. “It’s always possible, but we shouldn’t let that deter us either.”
And that is why US President Biden is operating so cautiously and is reluctant to provide weapons that can really go deep. Although Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons, the key question remains what the red lines really are for him. Official Russian doctrine is that nuclear weapons are legitimized when the Russian state is existentially threatened in its very existence. But where does Ukraine end and Russia begin?
“We have to see what the Ukrainian military can handle”
Crimea
“But what is Russian territory then? Is it Donbass? Are those the four new republics? Or is it really the heart of Russia? Is it the Kremlin itself?’ Bolder thinks that if the Ukrainians take back Donbass, it could still be overlooked by Moscow. He’s not sure about the Crimea. “If Crimea is really threatened, it will be very exciting, of course. And certainly if that land bridge will be crossed by the Ukrainians».
Bolder also questions the constant shipment of heavy weapons, as claimed by various parties. Because, he wonders, what is the absorptive capacity of the Ukrainian army to be able to adequately work with these new weapons? “We’ll have to see what the Ukrainian military can handle.”
“You must not look at the military utility of a small or large nuclear weapon”
“Hence, of course, the discussion of air power and F-16s. Ukrainians cannot operate with it yet. They may be able to fly it after a very short time, because it doesn’t have to take 18 months. But it really takes a year for technicians to maintain and repair such an aircraft.”