The relationship between the two countries has improved significantly over the past year, says Ton Nijhuis, director of the Germany Institute at the University of Amsterdam (DIA). Initially, the Americans were annoyed, for example, by the German participation in the Nord Stream 2 project and the initial hesitation to support Ukraine.
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But Scholz spoke of the Zeitenwende, the great changes that await the world. And Germany has decided to release 100 billion euros for defense investments, so that the country also responds to NATO objectives. “The relationship between Berlin and Washington has really improved,” says Nijhuis. ‘It is important for the United States to have Germany as a point of contact in Europe, more than France at the moment. And for Germany it is very important that the United States join. They need each other.’
According to US correspondent Jan Postma, both leaders are on the same wavelength. Keeping the international coalition together is Biden’s main goal. He sees that Germany is also contributing to this ”.
“Keeping the international coalition together is Biden’s main goal.”
Biden and Scholz will speak privately. “It’s just the two of them, there’s no media and there’s no press conference.” According to Nijhuis, this speaks volumes about the content of the conversation. “That means they really want to talk fundamentally and freely.”
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These are probably arms deliveries: what do we do, what do we not do and where are the red lines? Also, they will talk about the end of the war. “Then there should be peace talks, but when is actually a good time and what are the starting points for a peace and who will facilitate it?” says Nijhuis. ‘And then it’s also about peace negotiations and security guarantees for Ukraine. If they come, does that mean that Germany and Holland will have to send soldiers?’
“Does this mean that Germany and the Netherlands should also send soldiers?”
According to Nijhuis, Germany would like America to take the lead especially on this last point. “If you say there should be peace negotiations or a ceasefire so that Ukraine can live in peace and quiet, then there must also be someone to defend the country against Russia.”
Support base
While support for support among Western countries still seems strong, support among the American population appears to be waning. “Three months ago, about 60% of Americans supported support for Ukraine. That’s down to less than 50 percent,’ says Postma from Washington. “There’s also a certain war-weariness in America. After Afghanistan and Iraq, the criticism for years has been that too much money goes to those wars, America itself also needs money, for example to improve infrastructure’.
Republicans in particular are making themselves heard more and more in this field. “Under new leader Kevin McCarthy, the sending of blank checks to Ukraine is said to have ended.” That first American sound is very strong among the right wing of the Republicans, and Biden must also take into account it.
In Germany, too, supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia is becoming increasingly difficult. Demonstrations against this support have recently taken place in Berlin. “But in what he calls an impassioned speech, Scholz said once again that the world has changed and once again he stood up for Ukraine,” Nijhuis says. The right-wing populist AfD and parts of the left are vocal. “But ultimately this is not so politically relevant.” Scholz has a majority in the Bundestag.
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China
Another thorny issue that is also on the agenda is China. Biden is cautiously preparing a sanctions package against China, in case China supplies arms to Russia. And he wants Germany’s support for that. “Scholz has already warned China, but at the same time China is also a very important export market for Germany.” A quarter of German car production takes place in China. ‘Giving up is risky and will cost jobs. Scholz has always promised that no jobs will disappear under his leadership.’