Defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague thinks Ukraine is playing a tactical game with the Russians. “It appears the Russians shot down two drones over Mariupol, so that would be one explanation,” he says. “That bombs or missiles would land in Mariupol from Ukrainian drones.”
It wouldn’t be the first time Ukraine has managed to get this far behind Russian lines, Wijninga says. For example, a month ago, Ukrainians reportedly attacked Russian airbases inside Russian territory. Wijninga therefore does not call such a course of events impossible.
HIMARS
It’s definitely not a HIMARS, you know. “They only have a range of 80 kilometers, so you should put it all in front,” continues Wijninga. “And he’s in too much danger there.”
Americans could also play a role in the explosions. They may have supplied the Ukrainian military with the ground-launched small-diameter bomb, which can be launched with HIMARS and has a range of 150 kilometers. ‘But it’s still highly questionable whether they’ve been delivered yet, because it was only promised earlier this month. Drones are most likely.’
strategic importance
Wijninga stresses that attacking Mariupol is of strategic importance for the Ukrainians. Mariupol is known as a bustling port city, “and the port facilities are largely still usable,” she says. “As a result, the Russians can bring in people and equipment to continue the battle in the Donbass and the south. So if they manage to sabotage or destroy the Russian logistics supply line, it could seriously hamper Russian supply. They can use it if they want to launch an offensive themselves.’