“There are reports of large concentrations indicating this, especially from the Russian Air Force,” he says. Hundreds of aircraft, both helicopters and fighter jets, were allegedly gathered in northern Ukraine. Furthermore, the battalions of the Wagner group are said to have set out for Mariupol, although they have now come under attack in their turn. “So the effect of him remains to be seen, and Bachmoet hasn’t fallen yet either.”
Although he calls it difficult to predict whether anything will actually happen on Friday, he thinks there is a belief in Russia that day simply cannot pass.
No indication
In Putin’s speech today in a Russian stadium, there were no indications that anything drastic should be done, adds researcher Tony van der Togt of the Clingendael Institute. “The whole tenor is that the Russians have everything under control,” he says. «That the West can continue to harass them with sanctions, but according to the Russians it would not have much effect. But it can also be a tactic, obviously you never know with Putin’.
According to Van der Togt, this uncertainty is an important factor, because a year ago it was not thought that Putin would have invented a large-scale invasion. Van der Togt speaks of a great risk for Putin if he were to undertake something military now and fail; “that would come back to him like a boomerang.”
Criticism
Van der Togt also thinks Putin would face enormous domestic criticism, including from extremists in his own party. “Just for the date,” he continues. In addition, China, Russia’s main partner, has announced that it will present a peace plan this week. They just went to Moscow about this, and Russia would be very rude to its Chinese partner if it announced an increase in military action now.”