In eastern Ukraine, Russia is losing about 2,000 soldiers every week for every 100 meters of territory it gains. Huge and frightening numbers, says Bolder. “Putin is fine with people suffering from him and that makes him scary. It means that Putin will not step down any time soon and also that we cannot afford to let him win, because then his strategy will work and that will affect us for years to come.’
The battle centers around the eastern Ukrainian town of Bachmut (at least what is left of it) where, according to Bolder, around 1,000 soldiers die every day. Bachmut has little strategic value, but all the more value in terms of propaganda and symbolism. ‘It has no strategic value (…). Ukraine is doing everything possible to prevent Russia from doing this.’ And if the Russians were to win, it would be a Pyrrhic victory, according to the defense specialist.
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30,000 dead
«The Wagner group has lost something like thirty thousand men there, the only Russian soldier who has to advance on the corpses of his predecessors. That’s also not very motivating.’ Despite the also high losses in the Ukrainian armed forces, Bolder calls it a boon for Ukraine that “keep the Russians here and demolish hugely.” According to Bolder, time is on the side of the Ukrainians because they will soon have heavy weapons.
“The advantage is that the Ukrainians stop the Russians here and demolish massively.”
The Russians know this and that’s why they started their attacks too soon. “For about three weeks there have been more Russians trying to push hard, I have the impression that the Russians are accelerating even though they are not really ready for it.”
No air superiority
Looking back on the Russian air force deployment during the war, Bolder concludes that the Russians never achieved air superiority and will not achieve it anytime soon. ‘They’ve never done a lot of flying hours, in the West a fully operational pilot has to fly at least 180 hours a year. The Russians do half. They are also less trained in multiple operations: air defense and ground attack, they have different aircraft for it and their pilots are trained for it.’
Hear the full conversation in BNR’s Big Five here
No air superiority for the Russians, and that won’t change now that Gerasimov is in command of the Russian forces. ‘You can’t suddenly change your entire modus operandi in a war, so much training precedes it. The coordinated deployment of the Air Force and the Army requires a lot of training, and that hasn’t happened enough in recent years.
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