It’s a mistake Russians often make, according to senior researcher and Russia expert Tony van der Togt van Clingendael: “That they don’t understand Ukrainians. They think Ukrainians are like Russians. They misjudged it horribly, this is their first mistake.” According to Van der Togt, the Russians therefore thought that in Kiev they would be greeted as liberators with bread and salt. “And then there was no plan B, so I was improvising all the time.”
lost
According to Van der Togt, Putin misjudged the Ukrainians. Not only the Russian security service FSB is to blame, the head himself also thought that it would be as easy as in 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea. ‘It was very easy, the Ukrainian army was very small at the time. But many years later the situation is completely different: the Ukrainians are now much more powerful». According to Van der Togt, several heads have rolled at the FSB, with the result that even fewer people are inclined to contradict “the boss”. “Its supply of information will then be even more limited.”
Boomerang
An important but unintended effect of Putin’s actions is that he actually strengthens his opponents. He consistently achieves the opposite of what he means by his actions. Not only has Putin strengthened Ukraine’s status and identity, but his arch-enemies, the NATO alliance, the EU and the West, are stronger and more united than ever. And they were the very ones he wanted to untie, says Van der Togt. «He Misjudged the unity of the West. And he continues to despise it. He still thinks he can put everyone on the sidelines, that virtually everyone in the West is for sale.”
‘He allegedly feels threatened by NATO, but by doing so he has only made NATO stronger. He misjudged the unity of both the West and the EU in several respects. Get the gas. He thought he could keep blackmailing Germany, but that didn’t work either.”
Bad student
According to Van der Togt, Putin has a flat learning curve in this regard; ‘The lessons of 2014 have not decreased’. And this too is due to the small circle of faithful who surround him: «That little club of decision-makers, there are less than ten of them. All men of the same age, between sixty and seventy, all from the secret services. They are not open to learning, plus they look from a security perspective, and this is limited by what has become an increasingly ideological perspective.’
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